Brexit 'technical talks' deal with Northern Eire

Staying in the single market would see a less dramatic 3% decline.

TAOISEACH Leo Varadkar has warned the British Government that Ireland fully expects them to stand by the Brexit deal made in December regarding the issue of the Irish border.

"A 16% reduction in the GDP of the North East translates into thousands of job losses".

The leaks comes as the government analysis is distributed to Members of Parliament on the Exiting the EU Subcommittee, which hosts a number of pro-Remain MPs.

By comparison, London would sustain just a 3.5% hit to growth in a no deal scenario.

Ministers in the European Union exit and trade (strategy and negotiations) sub-committee considered the issues of immigration and Northern Ireland on Wednesday and are expected to discuss the crucial issue of the UK's future relationship with Brussels on Thursday.

MPs have now been able to to view the documents in the House of Commons library.

By comparison, the capital would sustain just a 2 per cent hit to growth if the United Kingdom gets a free trade deal, 3.5 per cent in a no deal scenario, and just 1 per cent if the country stays in the single market.

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A free trade deal will cause the economy to shrink by 8% and a deal to remain within a single market, seen as a "soft Brexit" will lead to a 2.5% hit.

The 8% figures for "no deal" was said to amount to Scotland's economy being £12.7bn a year worse off.

The Brexit figures come as Theresa May holds crunch meetings of her inner "war cabinet" of senior ministers on Wednesday and Thursday to thrash out what kind of trade relationship the United Kingdom will seek in negotiations.

"The Conservatives are putting the public in the firing line because they are hell bent on Brexit".

'People did not vote to make themselves poorer.

Government assessment of Brexit deals on economic growth over 15 years compared to current forecasts Government region Single market Free trade No deal East Midlands -1.8% -5% -8.5% Eastern -1.8% -5% -8% London -1% -2% -3.5% North-East -3% -11% -16% North-West -2.5% -8% -12% South-East -1.5% -4.5% -7.5% South-West -1% -2% -5% West Midlands -2.5% -8% -13% Yorkshire and Humber -1.5% -5% -7% Northern Ireland -2.5% -8% -12% Scotland -2.5% -6% -9% Wales -1.5% -5.5% -9.5% United Kingdom -2% -5% -8%.

The figures for Scotland in all three scenarios are worse than for the United Kingdom as a whole, which was predicted to have 8% lower GDP with no deal, 5% lower if the United Kingdom negotiated a free trade deal, and 2% lower if it adheres to the rules of the single market. Does she believe any analysis she has seen?

The analysis suggests that London, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union, will get off most lightly from Brexit, with growth reduced by just 3.5 per cent, even with no deal. "And is this too high a price to pay to stop a Tory civil war breaking out?" he said.


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