'Oil era is far from over,' says IEA's annual report
15 November 2017, 12:20 | Andres Norman
US oil and gas 'resurgence' expected as global demand grows
Both benchmarks early in the previous week hit highs last seen in 2015, but traders said the market had lost some momentum since then.
The largest contribution to demand growth - nearly 30 per cent -would come from India, whose share of global energy would rise to 11 per cent by 2040, it says.
IEA said that if current levels of OPEC production were maintained, the oil market would face a "difficult challenge" during the first quarter of 2018 on the back of supply exceeding demand by 600,000 bbl/day followed by another, smaller, surplus of 200,000 bbl/day in the second quarter of the year.
In what could come as grim news for officials attending global climate talks in Bonn, Germany, the IEA expects oil demand to keep rising until 2040.
Global oil supply rose by 100,000 bpd in October to 97.5m bpd on higher production from non-Opec countries, and non-Opec oil supply is expected to rise by 700,000 bpd this year and 1.4m bpd next year, led by stronger output in the US.
IEA said it had cut its longer-term oil price projections from previous year, partly because of the falling cost of both renewable and conventional sources of energy, the worldwide push to tackle climate change and improve air quality and the boom in USA shale oil and gas output.
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While the IEA's base-case scenario projects oil prices reaching US$83 per barrel by 2025 and as high as US$111 by 2040, a low oil-price scenario could see prices stuck in the US$50 to US$70s if electric passenger cars take off, USA tight oil production continues to rise and upstream costs decline.
In fact, the monthly report published by IEA on Tuesday would back that theory up as it lowered its crude demand forecast for the whole of 2017 and 2018, by 50,000 bbl/day and 190,000 bbl/day respectively.
In Abu Dhabi on Monday, the UAE Minister of Energy and Industry Suhail bin Mohammed Faraj Faris Al Mazrouei, said that oil producers were expected to unanimously extend a production cut accord later this month, but its duration was still under discussion. But stringent fuel-efficiency measures for cars and trucks, and a shift that sees one-in-four cars being electric by 2040, mean that China is no longer the main driving force behind global oil use - demand growth is larger in India post-2025.
However, even rapid growth in the electric vehicle fleet would be unlikely to have a substantial impact on oil consumption for passenger transport until the mid-2020s, it said.
In addition, analysts said oil prices were pressured by a global commodities selloff, led by base metals like nickel and copper, due to weaker-than-expected economic data from China.
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