The UK election just got interesting

Following the previous election, the Conservatives won a working majority of 17 seats in the 650-member House of Commons.

When the polls are wrong, they are usually almost all wrong in the same way, as in last year's United States presidential election, when all but a handful predicted a victory for Hillary Clinton. This means she would be forced to strike a deal with another party to continue governing either as a coalition or a minority government.

Even if May can cling on to power - say, if she keeps her majority but it is reduced to single figures - her authority will be severely undermined and Brexit negotiators in Brussels will be confident they can weaken Britain's hand in talks.

But that plan could backfire - Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn has been successfully focusing his campaign on domestic policy rather than Brexit. She had called the early vote, despite repeatedly saying she would not do so, in an attempt to secure a strong mandate during Brexit negotiations and presumably to increase the 17-seat lead that she now has in the House of Commons.

But the pound proved resilient on the news, falling just 0.2% against the dollar to $1.287.

The biggest donation for the Conservatives came from theatre producer John Gore, who gave Theresa May's party £1,000,050. The Electoral Calculus website, which predicts the results based on polls and electoral geography, said May would win 371 seats and Labour 205 seats.

Other projections still show May would win soundly though the YouGov poll was the latest hit to markets which just two weeks ago were pricing in a Conservative landslide.

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A seat-by-seat estimate suggested that the Conservatives could lose 20 seats and see Mrs May's majority wiped out, while Labour may gain 28 seats.

May also faced criticism for refusing to take part in a live television Wednesday night after Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn announced he would, after all, participate.

YouGov acknowledged there was uncertainty with any poll compared to polling in individual constituencies.

But Goodwin and other experts are not convinced by the model, pointing out that YouGov had used the same model to incorrectly project a victory for Hillary Clinton in three states where she lost in the USA election.

In recent days, the British pound has suffered a major selloff on the shrinking margin of Tories in the upcoming United Kingdom election that would be held on June 8th.

The YouGov research allowed for big variations in the outcome of the election, ranging from as high as 345 seats for the Conservatives, 15 more than their current number, to as low as 274, The Times said.


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